The Future of Audience Research

We no longer have to rely on old cultural prophecies as to who is the right consumer for the right message. It no longer has to be microsample-based [à la Nielsen or Simmons]. We now have [total-population] data, and that changes everything. With [those] data, you can know essentially everything. You can find out all the things that are nonintuitive or counterintuitive that are excellent predictors. ... There's a lot of power in that.

- Dave Morgan, Founder of the behavioral targeting firm Tacoda, now owned by AOL

In Bob Garfield, "Your Data With Destiny," Advertising Age, September 15, 2008

Morgan's quote reflects current beliefs about the use of data-mining that are reshaping the media system. The idea is that instead of making predictions about specific customers based on general surveys of people like them, marketers should track the customers themselves in ways they may not know. The assertion is that findings from such tracking can lead to accurate predictions about products and persuasive techniques that will appeal specifically to those targeted individuals. Garfield gives interesting examples of how that can work from basic collaborate filtering technologies (as with Amazon and Netflix) to more sophisticated activities via Taboola and My6Sense.

Implicit in his piece—but as important as the main theme—is a view that has begun to take hold in parts of the marketing community: that survey samples (for example, Nielsen’s TV, internet, and billboard samples) should be replaced by population samples via set-top-box data, behavioral tracking, and other methods. In that connection, the Advertising Research Foundation (ARF) has convened “forums” on the topic later this month and next month that will valorize tracking “entire” populations and foreground buzz and other techniques that supposedly get close to the consumers in unobtrusive ways.

"I don't know if we are going to have a choice but to move away from survey research," Donna Goldfarb, VP-consumer and market insights for Unilever Americas is quoted as saying in another Ad Age piece. "We continue to torture consumers with boring and antiquated search methods. What's holding us back is history and norms. But I work in a business where I think most of the senior leadership is still very frustrated with the tools that we are using."

The Ad Age piece acknowledges that firms such as Unilever and P&G continue to spend lots of money on surveys. (P&G spent $200 million on research vendors in 2006.) Yet statements such as Goldfarb’s “signal a shift in paradigms, and most likely budgets, away from surveys and toward mining insights from blogs, social networks, consumer comments to websites and more,” according to Joel Rubinson, chief research officer of the ARF. They also may signal that the audience research that emerges may create increasing tensions around issues of privacy.

Is the Google News Glitch a Mark of Mistakes to Come?

Anytime anyone spreads false information about a public company over a communication medium like the internet, its message boards, chat rooms or otherwise, that will raise questions as to whether someone is committing securities fraud.

- John Reed Stark, head of the US Security and Exchange Commission's office of internet enforcement

In Joanna Chung and Justin Bear, "SEC Probes United's Sudden Slump," Financial Times, September 12, 2008

The web's power over people's understanding of reality became quite vivid on news on September 8, 2008, when United Airlines stock lost more than 75% of its value because a 2002 article about its bankruptsy filing that had been published that year the South Florida Sun-Sentinel (owned by the Tribune Company) mistakenly appeared on Google News. The appearance led readers on the site to believe it was happening that day, and they responded by selling the stock. A few days later, US security regulators opened an informal investigation of how that happened.

It seems that the glitch began when on early Sunday morning a single visitor to the Sentinel website viewed the 2002 story reporting on United's bankruptcy filing. That visit was enough to have the old article land on the Sun-Sentinel's most-viewed list at that hour. "Google said its web-trawling program spotted the link and indexed it as a new story when it could not find a 2002 dateline. Tribune has said it would have been obvious to a reader that the article was six years old."

Each company, in other words, says that the mistake was the other's fault. United, in the meantime, is considering filing a lawsuit against both. The lurking question: Will--or when will--this sort of agenda-setting mistake happen again on Google News or elsewhere on the web, and with what consequences?

A Ten Year Old With a Big Future

You can't do some of the things that they are trying to do without eventually facing some challenges from the government and your rivals.

- Danny Sullivan, editor-in-chief of SearchEngineLand

Michael Liedke, "Google Reigns as World's Most Powerful 10-year-Old," Associated Press, via Yahoo News, September 6, 2008

Larry Page and Sergey Brin founded Google on September 7 1998. "It sounded preposterous 10 years ago, but look now: Google draws upon a gargantuan computer network, nearly 20,000 employees and a $150 billion market value to redefine media, marketing and technology." What started out as a bid by Stanford University graduate students to build a better search engine--with no real business model--has turned into a firm that makes more money than any other on the internet through launching ads on its website based on people's searches as well as on web pages to which people go. In performing those tasks, as well as through its Gmail service, YouTube, and other activities, Google has collected information on hundreds of millions of people--though it is not forthcoming exactly how it uses that information. The company has made advertising agencies anxious because they believe Google has interests taking their place in selling ads across many types of media. Google has also made Microsoft anxious, as it moves to compete with on computers, mobile devices and browsers by placing free software programs on the web, creating its own mobile operating system (Android) and offering its own browser, Chrome.

"Google's expanding control over the flow of Internet traffic and advertising already is raising monopoly concerns....Privacy watchdogs also have sharpened their attacks on Google's retention of potentially sensitive information ..." To fend off government and advocacy-group attacks, Google has initiated sophisticated government-relations activities. Despite these tensions, observers point out that the web today centers around Google and probably will for years to come. John Battelle, an internet publishing executive who wrote a book about Google, put the point succintly. "Google," he said, "is the oxygen in this ecosystem."

Does eBay Court Victory Portend Other Website Wins?

The ruling confirms that eBay acted reasonably and has adequate procedures in place to effectively address counterfeiting

- eBay spokesperson Nicola Sharpe

We are shocked and deeply disappointed in the district court's erroneous reading of the law. The ruling allows sellers of counterfeit goods on eBay to victimize consumers.

- Tiffany & Company spokesperson Mark Aaron

In Wendy Davis, "Tiffany Loses Trademark Infringement Case Against EBay," Online Media Daily, July 15, 2008

The ruling by federal judge Richard Sullivan in New York spoke to two controversy issues relating to intellectual property on the web. Tiffany had sued eBay in 2004 because it said it feared that people were auctioning fake Tiffany goods. The jeweler stated that eBay should prohibit its sellers from listing five or more Tiffany items. eBay replied that it removed counterfeits when it discovered they were fake, but could not see the justification fo prohibiting the sale of Tiffany goods without that knowledge.

The judge agreed, saying that eBay's practice of removing items from its site in response to notices from Tiffany was enough to prevent being liable. The judge also refused to accept an additional argument by Tiffany that because its name is trademarked eBay should be stopped from using the Tiffany name in eBay's advertising on search engines. The judge stated that eBay needed to use the Tiffany to describe certain products and that this activity was "fair use" according to trademark law.

Judge Posner's decision might inflence the outcome of Viacom's lawsuit against Google, alleging that Google should have done more to stop people from placing Viacom's copyrighted programs on its site. "Although Tiffany alleged trademark infringement, its arguments were comparable to those in Viacom's copyright infringement lawsuit against Google's YouTube. Viacom, like Tiffany, wants to hold a site liable for material placed on it by users. And like Tiffany, Viacom argues that Google should be required to police the site for intellectual property infringement."

Sex and the City of Jerusalem

We told them, the way you don't remove the word "Coca" from "Coca-Cola" and just leave "Cola," we can't do it in this case.

- Arye Barak, spokesperson for Forum Films, distributor of the movie Sex and the City in Israel

In Associated Press, "Sex and the City ads Banned in Two Israeli Cities," MSNBC.COM, May 20, 2008

Traditional sensibilities collided with modernity with the release of the movie Sex and the City in two Israeli cities. Municipal officials in the Israeli cities of Jerusalem and Petah Tikva asked the outdoor advertising company working for Forum Films not to use the word "sex" for ads about the movie. Those cities have large "religious" populations, the officials said, and they would be offended by use of the word. (Cities in the rest of Israel had no problem with the ad campaign.) Executives did not go forward with outdoor ads in Jerusalem and Petah Tikvah because they felt it would be "ludicrous" to show the name of the movie without its key word. An alternative, somewhat subversive way to have proceeded would have been to play with the first word: Six and the City or --- and the City. That might have alerted people in those cities who would know the show that the movie would be playing there. It might have led to widespread word-of-mouth advertising among the target audience. And presumably religious segments of the population would have less reason to complain. Non-religious people who use popular media in those two cities are likely to still see ads, though: The movie is heavily advertised on TV, the Internet and in newspapers.

Advocates Urge FTC to Take Proactive Stance on Mobile Marketing

Privacy advocates are concerned that it could be misused. It's the 'Minority Report' paranoia.

-D. Reed Freeman, a partner with the law firm Kelley Drye & Warren and a former staff attorney in the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection

He was referring to a complaint that the Center for Digital Democracy and the U.S. Public Interest Research Group filed with the Federal Trade Commission. The purpose of the complaint is to force the FTC to begin to set rules about how much and how marketers can track people's actions on their cell phones and other mobile devices. Of course, the advocacy groups would disagree that their actions are paranoia. "We're filing a complaint to force the FTC to take a proactive stance," said Jeff Chester, executive direct of the Center for Digital Democracy. He noted that mobile ad companies "incorporate the same problematic business practices that we witnessed with PC-based broadband marketing, including behavioral targeting and profiling techniques--except that this time they know your location."

In Wendy Davis, "Groups Complain To FTC About Mobile Marketing," Online Media Daily, May 6, 2008.

It might be added that, contrary to Freeman's statement, the marketing activities in Minority Report are treated rather gently, even humorously, compared to the government surveillance in the movie. Steven Spielberg, the director, was using the marketing scenes to provide product placement for The Gap and other firms.

Nike Viral Video Controversy

They are bored, and live anonymous lives, and are looking for something that would put them on top of the pack for being brave or cool or funny.

-Parry Aftab, cyberspace lawyer

She was talking about teenagers who might get hurt copying a new Nike video posted on YouTube, where Kobe Bryant leaps over a speeding sportscar.

In Kate Mahoney, "Nike Risks Viral Backlash With Kobe Video On YouTube," Mediapost's Marketing Daily, April 25, 2008.